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iPad: Five links on “open” vs “closed”

The iPad has stirred a massive response of comments, analysis and almost religious outcries. I guess just about anything has been said; Is it a blow against the generative Internet? Can you trust your mechanic?

  1. Cory Doctorow: Why I won’t buy an iPad (and think you shouldn’t, either)
  2. John Gruber: The Kids Are All Right. In short: He disagrees with Doctorow
  3. Jim Stogdill: The iPad isn’t a computer, it’s a distribution channel
  4. Umair Haque: Apple’s Strategic iParadox
  5. Mark Sigal: Grumpy old men, the “Inmates” and margins – iPad, iPhone and the future of computing
  6. Tim Wu: The Apple Two

What are operators doing?

It’s been a while since my last blog post, and there have been several news stories related to net neutrality, mobile Internet and what mobile operators do:

So what is the issue here. Google develops more and more services for mobile phones. Apple has succeeded with their iPhone and basically control all what used to be called value added services. Mobile operators compete on data plans – probably as a loss leader to secure revenue from voice. If we add wireless net neutrality and regulated low termination rates for mobile voice (or even bill and keep), the situation does not look to bright. They have to start real charging for  or at least versioning their data plans (within any present net neutrality regulation)

Why a Google phone?

The launch of the Google phone has got a lot of attention. My first reaction to the rumors last autumn was “why”. Lot’s of handset manufacturers are releasing new handsets with Android. Why would Google risk reducing manufacturers incentives to make Android phones? I see two reasons:

  1. Secure overall user experience quality (solve a coordination problem by vertical integration)
  2. Change how mobile phones are sold in the US (first choose phone, then choose carrier and subscription)

Nexus One has a great screen and a fast processor. I expect that Google has focused on the overall user experience. Consequently, the device can serve as a best practice example for an Android device. Financial Times’ John Gapper describes how Apple is “half closed” and Google is “half open”. Even Google must compete with Apple’s user experience gurus.

Jon Stokes commented in Ars Technica that Google’s biggest announcement was not a phone, but a URL. As a Norwegian, it is easy to forget how different the US mobile phone market is from what I am used to. Mobile operators have almost turned complex price plans, phone subsidies and lock-in periods into an art to capture consumer surplus. Google is according to the article, the first carrier-independent smartphone store in the US. First you pick your phone, then you pick your carrier and subscription. It seems like a clear message from Google to the mobile operators: Guys, just compete on price/quality of wireless Internet access. Let us and others fix the rest.

Can the Internet continue as “small pieces loosely joined”?

The openness of the Internet has been a recurring theme during the last months.

  • FCC rulemaking process on network neutrality [PDF]

Most of these issues are raised in Tim O’Reilly readable blog entry on “The War for the Web”. (and the title of this blog post is found somewhere in his post).

The future of the Internet – or its ability to sustain the generative aspects – is dependent upon interplay between technological, business and policy development. Personally, I like Abramson (2005) short description of how these domains interact:

Technology constrains what we can do, legal rules change the alternatives’ relative cost, and economic incentives indicate which alternatives we are likely to choose (Abramson, 2005, Digital Phoenix, MIT Press)

So, what will 2010 bring? I expect that the “openness” of the Internet will still be a recurring theme. My predictions are that

  • Net neutrality will not become a major issue. Proposed regulations are aligned with access providers’ incentives
  • Compatibility and interworking between different Web 2.0/Internet companies will be the major issue

Maybe I should just reread Information Rules and Finding of the Facts in the U.S. Microsoft case  to prepare 2010?

App vs web revisited

TechCrunch reports that Facebook developer Joe Hewitt, the man behind the immensely popular Facebook application for iPhone, has just tweeted that he’s done with the project.   He told TechCrunch.

The web is still unrestricted and free, and so I am returning to my roots as a web developer. In the long term, I would like to be able to say that I helped to make the web the best mobile platform available, rather than being part of the transition to a world where every developer must go through a middleman to get their software in the hands of users.”

The story is picked up by The Future of the Internet blog.

JZ [Jonathan Zittrain] argues that the PC and the internet have been the perfect combination for generativity. The internet itself could itself be a solution to the control of mobile platforms. But these pieces point out, yet again, how even that combination isn’t untouchable unless we’re constantly, actively working at it.

I agree with Zittrain that the combination of devices anyone can make applications for, and the Internet at least as we are used to, has enabled rich innovation. This is something valuable we must continue working at.